Forecasts and Growth Drivers of the Moldovan Economy in 2013 and 2014

After a decline of 0.8% in 2012, the Moldovan economy will rebound in 2013 and stabilise in 2014. While growth in 2013 will be based on the recovery of the agricultural sector, in 2014 it will be driven by the services sector. In the medium term, final consumption will remain the main driver of economic growth. The Moldovan economy will register a minor recovery in 2013, followed by a moderate stabilisation in 2014. Thus, this year's favourable weather conditions will trigger compensatory growth of 20% in agriculture, which will account for about half of the forecast GDP growth of 4.4% for 2013. In the following year, the economy will be driven primarily by the services sector, which will account for almost half of the forecast GDP growth of 4.6% for 2014. In general, the Moldovan economy remains heavily dependent on final consumption, which will continue to be the main growth factor in the short and medium term. Consequently, the previous risks and vulnerabilities, associated with an economic growth model based on consumption and a high trade deficit, will persist unless decisive action is taken to strengthen the country's competitiveness. To this end, an efficient Customs Service, modernised road infrastructure, facilitated technology transfer and a transparent, accountable and efficient judicial system are needed. For additional information, see the latest issue of the MEGA magazine at www.expert-grup.org.