Expert-Grup

Expert-Grup estimates an economic recession of 3%-5% for the Transnistrian region in 2015

Tuesday, 23 December 20147299 views
Expert-Grup estimates an economic recession of 3%-5% for the Transnistrian region in 2015

Automatically translated summary. The full article is available in Romanian.

Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup” has launched the second edition of its Regional Economic Review: the Transnistrian region. The publication analyses the economic performance of the left bank of the Dniester in 2014 and forecasts the main challenges for 2015, including an expected recession of 3-5%.

The region's economy stagnated in 2014. Consumption was undermined by the depreciation of the Russian rouble and the artificial peg between the “Transnistrian rouble” and the US dollar, hitting migrants' families, who contribute 30% of regional GDP. The restart of the Moldovan Steel Works helped drive a 37% rise in exports, and favourable weather supported agriculture.

For 2015, Expert-Grup expects a 3-5% recession, driven by fading growth factors, economic difficulties in Ukraine and Russia, and the slow EU recovery, as the EU takes 60% of exports. Expert-Grup says the authorities responded inadequately: heavier tax burdens and controls on business, costlier bank credit, export reorientation towards Russia and continued denunciation of the EU Association Agreement. Executive director Adrian Lupușor says firms' economic interests are sacrificed to (geo)political ones. The region risks losing its most important market. The review was supported by the Embassy of the Netherlands in Bucharest.

View the original article in Romanian