Top positive and negative economic and social developments of 2021 and challenges for 2022

Among the positives, rapid economic recovery raised tax revenues and strengthened the budget. The gas crisis was resolved, with a more predictable energy dialogue with Russia and Gazprom. The minimum pension rose to MDL 2,000, a gas tariff compensation mechanism was built in record time, a pandemic support package was drawn up, and the national currency stayed stable with larger foreign exchange reserves.

The negatives include inflationary pressure on low-income families, an overly large planned budget deficit, weaker decision-making quality, postponed reforms (territorial-administrative, local financial decentralisation, central public administration) and poorly functioning institutions. For 2022, challenges include historical debt, especially from the Transnistrian region, the Third Energy Package, grid interconnection with Ukraine and Romania, and energy efficiency. Inflation is expected to exceed 15%, raising poverty risks, while growth slows and the trade, current account and budget deficits widen. Gas supply tensions and the Omicron variant add further risks.