Constructing the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) for the Moldovan Economy

One of the main lessons learned after the economic crisis of 2009 has been the need to improve the Government capacities to anticipate, prevent and adequately manage the potential negative trends in the national economy. One of the main issues in this respect is related to availability of statistical data and their publishing lags. In order to help the Government and other institutions which constantly follow the economic trends to overcome these constraints, EXPERT-GRUP elaborated this Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) of the Moldovan economy. As the name implies, it aims to predict future fluctuations of the economy, based on carefully selected variables which are found to lead the business cycle. Hence, ELI could serve as a crucial analytical tool for decision makers for better understanding of the main trends of the Moldovan economy and to predict the future turning points.